Overall Perspectives from 2015 to 2025
The European Union entered a crisis that it could not solve and that has increased in intensity.The European Union will not return to its previous unity. The current confrontation with Russia over Ukraine will remain a centerpiece of the international system over the next few years. The Russian Federation is not thought to exist in its current form for the entire decade. We have entered a period in which the decline of the nation-states created by Europe in North Africa and the Middle East is accelerating. China has completed its cycle as a high-growth, low-wage country and has entered a new phase that is the new normal. China will continue to be a major economic force but will not be the dynamic engine of global growth it once was. That role will be taken by a new group of highly dispersed countries we call the Post-China 16. The United States will continue to be the major economic, political and military power in the world but will be less engaged than in the past.
It will be a disorderly world, with a changing of the guard in many regions. The one constant will be the continued and maturing power of the United States — a power that will be much less visible and that will be utilized far less in the next decade.